Robinhood Says Bitcoin, Gold and Oil Contracts Are Its Fastest-Growing Prediction Markets

Prediction markets on Robinhood are moving beyond sports and elections, with traders increasingly betting on where bitcoin and commodities will trade.

What the company said

JB Mackenzie, who runs futures and prediction markets at Robinhood, said at a New York industry conference on Thursday that contracts tied to the prices of bitcoin, crude oil and gold are now the platform's fastest-growing products, CoinDesk reported. Sports remains the largest category. He added that Robinhood's single biggest event contract in September was tied to the Federal Reserve's rate decision.

Crypto contracts have also become much shorter. Mackenzie said they began with weekly windows, moved to daily, and now include 15-minute settlements. Robinhood's own site lists 15-minute contracts on bitcoin, ether, XRP, gold and oil. He likened the very short contracts to same-day options, which can lead to quick losses, CoinDesk reported.

A growing business

Robinhood offers these contracts through Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange. Mackenzie said customers who come for event contracts often go on to trade stocks, crypto and options, and some open retirement accounts. Earlier this week, CEO Vlad Tenev said the unit traded about 2.5 billion contracts in October, more than in the entire third quarter, Startup Fortune reported, citing Yahoo Finance.

Why it matters

The growth shows mainstream demand for simple ways to take a view on crypto prices. It also brings more retail activity into regulated venues, though very short-dated contracts carry real risk for inexperienced traders.